Way too early value targets for week 1 on FanDuel
This article is the result of an off-the-cuff browsing of the week one pricing on FanDuel, and shouldn’t be used to actually create your lineups. Having player pricing and contests more than a month out from the first week of the regular season is fun, gives us something to talk about, but is good for nothing more than reserving your spots in the big million dollar plus tournaments.
After seeing what shakes out in camp and through the first few weeks of the preseason, we will look again at the pricing on FanDuel and lock in some value plays. With that being said, here are a few names that I think will end up being nice week one values:
Sam Bradford – $7,500
His salary is actually higher than I though it would be, but with a juicy matchup with Atlanta he’s still a great value at just $7,500. This game has week one shootout written all over it. While Atlanta has some skill in the defensive backfield, Quinn won’t have them improved enough to slow down the Philly offense.
Aaron Rodgers – $9,700
This is top week 1 values, not sleepers or bargains, and I consider Rodgers and his FanDuel-high $9,700 a value against the Bears. Rodgers averaged 32 ppg against Chicago last season, and the Bears pass defense is going to be just as bad this season. The biggest difference vs last year? The Packers lost both of their starting corners, perhaps another week one shootout? I think Rodgers, Nelson, Cobb, Adams and Lacy are all great starts for week one.
Jeremy Hill – $8,600
I think 150 yards and 2 touchdowns are seriously in play for Jeremy Hill’s week one matchup with the Raiders. Oakland gave up nearly 28 ppg to opposing running backs last season, good for third worst right behind Atlanta and Cinci.
Joseph Randle – $6,900
Run DMC opened camp injured, shocker… We expect Joseph Randle to be the Cowboys starting running back, and while he won’t put up DeMarco-type numbers, you want to start him in favorable matchups like the Giants run defense. Randle averaged over 6 ypc last season, and the Giants gave up a NFL high 4.9 ypc as a defense, and while stopping the run was one of Coughlin’s primary goals this offseason, they did little to accomplish it. I think Randle has a huge week one and ends up a great value at $6,900.
Jordan Matthews – $6,800
Reasons to love Matthews this season: year 2 in offense, considerably better quarterback, no more Maclin. You should really love him week one against the Falcons who gave up nearly 40 ppg to opposing wide receivers.
Nick Toon – $4,900
Toon will assume the Kenny Stills roll in the Saints offense, a spot where Stills put up 63/931/3 last season. While those numbers aren’t exactly pro bowl worthy, keep in mind Graham is gone as well, so Toon could ultimately surpass Stills’ output from the Z position in the Saints offense.
Jordan Cameron – $5,500
Anybody that has followed my DFS picks over the past few years knows that I love targeting players facing defenses that make their team one dimensional, and the Redskins are the perfect example of that sort of defense. Great against the run, but porous at best against the pass. The Redskins were especially vulnerable to opposing tight ends giving up over 15 ppg. We know how talented Cameron is, and what he can do when healthy, and there’s a chance Parker misses week one, meaning even more targets for Cameron.
Zach Ertz – $5,400
I debated over whether I should list Ebron or Ertz in this last spot, and would ultimately end up using both players, but think Ertz is the safer play vs the Falcons. Both players should assume a larger roll in their team’s passing game than they did last season.
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