Week one of the CFL season was fairly hit-or-miss for us. We hit on picks like Johnson, Zystra, and Green, but really paid the price with the injury to Terrence Toliver and shocking week Bowman put up. With a week of game film and data to review, week two should be full of winners.
As we could predict, pricing didn’t fully react to what we saw in week one, and as a result is fairly loose. However this will create a bunch of chalk, and create some nice opportunities to fade those picks and bet on some big names to have bounce back weeks. Here are our top plays for week 2 CFL action on DraftKings.
Bo Levi Mitchell
The reigning MOP got off to a hot start in Ottawa in week one, and the two teams are running it back in Calgary for this week 2 matchup. Mitchell averaged 25 DraftKings PPG at home last season, and will surpass that number as well as the 26 points he put up against the Red Blacks in week one. He’s an easy stack with either McDaniel or Jorden, and both Anthony Parker and Lemar Durant will make nice value plays filling in for the injured DeVaris Daniels. One thing you can count on when Ottawa faces Calgary is a ton of points, the average total between these two teams has been 62 PPG over the last two seasons.
I think his opposing QB, Matt Nichols, will be fairly chalk after the big preseason he had. However, I love the fact that Saskatchewan has a game under their belts, on the road, against one of the best defenses in the CFL. They should find it much easier-going at home against a weaker Winnipeg defense here in week two. At $7,900, Glenn is the 7th lowest priced QB, and allows you to target 5 of our top 8 ranked flex players at your RB/WR/Flex positions this week.
Underpriced and facing an Edmonton run defense that we picked on last week, Sutton should be a fairly chalk pick in week 2. That being said, after needing a little luck to win at home against Saskatchewan in week one, if Montreal has any home of not getting blown out in Edmonton they will need to control time of possession. If the Alouettes do fall behind early, Sutton has proven to be a reliable receiver and should benefit from some volume targets as a pass catcher.
If you are looking for non-chalk value at the RB position, I think William Powell is the best bet on the board. He looked really good prior to the ankle injury, and would likely be one of the priciest backs in the slate had he not missed the majority of the game. He was full speed at practice on Monday and will be the starter again in week 2. I think he has a 3x floor if you get a full 4 quarters out of him on Thursday.
Identifying one receiver over $7,000 for this slate was tough. I really like both Duron Carter and Adarius Bowman to have big bounce-back week 2 performances. However, I think Darvin Adams is the safest play as he has the best matchup. The RoughRiders gave up the second most points in the CFL last season, with the fewest sacks and second fewest interceptions. Matt Nichols has looked great throughout the preseason, and Adams has clearly been his favorite target. He went over 19 points in 6 of his 9 starts last season, and should be a safe bet to hit at least that number in Saskatchewan.
While McDaniel’s 15 targets were impressive, it was Jorden that really jumped out at me watching the Calgary/Ottawa game last week. At 6’3″ 207 lbs, and playing out of the slot, it’s easy to see why Jorden is quickly becoming one of Bo Levi Mitchell’s favorite targets. Although he only caught 5 of 11 targets in week 1, we expect some of that rust to be knocked off and cleaned up at home in week 2. As I mentioned earlier, all four Stampede receivers are in play this week, but I think Jorden is the top value of the group.
The chalk play will be Duke Williams, but I think this is an Adarius Bowman week in Edmonton. Bowman will likely see 15-20 targets on Reilly’s 30-35 attempts, which means some serious regression is in line for both Williams and Zylstra. The one guy under $6,000 that I think repeats his week one success is Cunningham. With Duron Carter gone and Nik Lewis getting bigger every second, Cunningham may very well end up being Montreal’s clear number one receiver in year 3 here. There is a chance Montreal falls behind early here, and Cunningham sees a ton of targets as they try to keep pace with the Eskimos.