Against the Spread

NFL and CFB Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

After going 4-2 in NFL week 2 and CFB week 3, we got caught up in our FanDuel and DraftKings prep and missed last week. As you can see below, we are 5-3-1 on the season, but I feel a 4-0 week coming here… We have two NFL bets and two college football bets for you this week. All of our lines come from Bovada.

Our 2016 Record

win
5
loss
3
push
1

Best Bets for NFL Week 4 Games

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

One of the first things anyone that picks games against the spread will tell you they look for is home dogs. Anytime you can get points at home in the NFL, you have to take a close look at the matchup, especially when the road team isn’t a very good football team. The Colts lost by 35 points in Jacksonville last season, and are giving up over 31 PPG through three games this season.

Furthermore, the Colts are riddled with injury. The defense is just starting to get healthy, after losing 6 starters in the preseason and first week of the regular season. Andrew Luck is banged up, and hasn’t looked 100% for two weeks now. The real key to this game may very well be the return of Chris Ivory. We know the Jags want to run the ball a ton, run clock, and play good defense, but that was tough to do with Ivory out. Look for the Jags to get him going early, hit a few big plays, and then run clock and pick up their first win of the season.

Detroit Lions (+3)at Chicago Bears

We are done ignoring the disturbing trend that’s going on at Soldier field. The Bears flat out can’t win at home. There are a ton of reasons as to why, but the biggest two are their offensive and defensive lines. They get little to no rush on defense, and have given up the 4th most pressure on offense.

Combine those two factors with injuries to Alshon Jeffery who has clearly been limited this season and once again isn’t practicing this week, starting quarterback Jay Cutler, starting running back Jeremy Langford, backup running back Ka’Deem Carey, starting MLB Danny Trevathan, starting corner Kyle Fuller, pass rusher Pernell McPhee, and starting DT Eddie Goldman and this has blowout written all over it. The Lions on the other hand, will at least get Tavon Wilson and Antwoine Williams back on the defensive side of the ball this week.

Best Bets for CFB Week 5 Games

Stanford at Washington (-3.5)

Washington has become a popular playoff contender over the past couple weeks, but our subscribers can attest to the fact that we have been on the Huskies since about the middle of last season. Chris Peterson can outcoach just about anyone in the country, including David Shaw, and will have his team fired up for this top 10 matchup.

These are two of the better defenses in the nation, but this game is going to boil down to three main factors: the first is the one dimensional Cardinal offense. If Peterson can make them rely solely on McCaffrey this game will be a blowout. He’s going to force Ryan Burns to make throws, and with just 395 yards through three weeks, I’m not convinced that he can.

The second is the speed and playmakers Washington has on offense. The Huskies have a great RB in Myles Gaskin, but they also have three dynamic receivers in Chico McClatcher, John Ross, and Dante Pettis. Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning is one of the best young quarterbacks in the nation, and has already racked up 900 yards with a 14/2 touchdown/interception ratio.

Virginia at Duke (-3.5)

I’m convinced Duke may be one of the more underrated football teams in the ACC. Following a big win against Notre Dame, it’s hard to image they come out and lay an egg at home against a 1-3 Virginia team. The Blue Devils have shown flashes of being a competent defense, and they clearly have an advantage on the offensive side of the football here. Daniel Jones is playing extremely well, and they have shown great balance with Jela Duncan and Shaun Wilson running the ball.

The key to Duke covering the 3.5 will be their defenses’ ability to stop the Virginia rushing attack and get off the field. However, for the second straight year, the Blue Devils currently boast a top 50 run defense and we think they show up at home and blow out the Cavs.

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