Arian Foster Signs With Dolphins
The biggest news from this past week was Arian Foster signing with the Dolphins, effectively ending Jay Ajayi’s fantasy relevancy. There will obviously be some short of timeshare here, but of the two, Foster is the only that can be relied on in 3rd and passing downs. So we can expect Foster to at the very least, get third down work, but could he earn the starting job?
Head coach Adam Gase has already said both players will get plenty of carries, and he expects Arian to play a significant role in the Dolphins passing game. Looking back at what Gase did in Chicago, we should probably expect a similar timeshare to what Forte and Langford played in the second half of the season, which was about a 50/50 split with a lot of playing the hot hand. If you were drafting today, I don’t think you could count on either guy to provide RB1 or RB2 value in week 1.
Alex Collins Earning a Role in Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks had a great 2016 draft. We were extremely high on Ifedi as a value late first round pick. He could earn the right tackle job, and will at worst provide solid depth at both guard and tackle positions. We liked the Prosise pick at 90, but thought they got an even better back at 171 in Alex Collins and it seems like he made waves with Rawls and Prosise out during the spring.
Rawls wasn’t used at all in the Seahawks passing game, and we expect Prosise to step in right away as the third down back. However, he is a converted receiver and is about as unpolished as a runner as Theo Riddick in Detroit. So, if Collins does earn playing time, it looks like he will eat directly into Rawls’ workload. Collins is unlikely to be draftable, but with an ADP of 25 and climbing, Rawls may see his stock drop in a hurry.
Expect Matt Forte and Bilal Powell to Split Carries
It was reported this week that Forte and Powell will likely split carries this season, and we are buying this rumor. The Jets absolutely know what they have in both players, so it makes sense that they would already have a good idea of how they want to use them.
I highly doubt it’s a 50/50 split, and both guys can play on all three downs, so look for a workload split. Our guess is 60/40 split with a drive rotation: Forte/Forte/Powell/Forte/Powell repeat…
This just confirms that Forte is being overvalued at 31 and Bilal Powell is a great value pick at 162. If you haven’t adjusted your draft strategy to target 3 receivers in the first 4 rounds, you should do so now.
DeMarco Murray Expected to Be Workhorse in Tennessee
This is news that we aren’t buying quite as much as the Jets RB story. We get saving the rookie’s legs and running the vet into the ground in a rebuild year, but will the fans be patient enough to let it happen? Murray’s YPC was awful last season, the line isn’t going to be much better (certainly not as good as Philly’s), and if he isn’t great, the fans will start calling for Henry.
Watch for Henry to become a value late-round pick, and for Henry to be way overvalued if the market overreacts to this news. We won’t be drafting Murray any higher than his current ADP (43) and think Henry is a value anywhere around his current ADP (101) – especially in keeper leagues.
Rashad Jennings to See 15-20 Carries Per Game
We have been buying this story since April. Jennings is the undisputed early down back in New York, and we expect him to have a big year in 2016. We expect Ben McAdoo to have the top offense in the NFL, and think you can expect career year numbers out of Manning, Jennings, Beckham, and a big year out of rookie Sterling Shepard.
Jennings will not only get the early down work in New York (15 to 20 carries per game) but can be expected to catch 3-4 passes per game, and to get the majority of goal line work. With a current ADP of 89, that’s great value for the middle of the 8th round.
Sammy Watkins Will Be Back for Training Camp
Sammy Watkins looks like he will be fully back from his foot injury for the start of training camp. He will be undervalued until owners see him play again. It’s important to keep in mind that Watkins had 60/1,047/9 in basically 11 games, in the first year with Tyrod Taylor. He’s a top 10 wide receiver when he’s healthy.
Andre Ellington to be Used as a WR
Ugh, just what we needed… another Cardinals receiver. No value here, but could be an interesting watch. Really wish Arizona would release/trade him so we could get some PPR value out of one of the better 3rd down backs in the league.