Similar to our week 5 NFL results, our week 6 Fan Picks college football picks were hit or miss. We hammered the Eve slate, and were just average for the other three. We are publishing early and afternoon picks Thursday morning, evening and late picks Friday morning, and will have an article breaking down the Fan Picks NFL slate for the first time this season on Friday.
Fan Picks CFB Week 7 Early Slate
Just a nine game slate for the early contests on Fan Picks, and I know from the few dozen players we have spoken directly to that this is something most daily fantasy CFB players prefer. I know compared to breaking down that 50 game slate we had in week 2, limiting each slate to just the top 8-15 games makes researching each game, team, player a much more realistic task.
As far as the games are concerned, I imagine there will be some national interest in the Clemson/NC State and Texas Tech/West Virginia games, but overall this looks like a fairly forgettable early Saturday slate. We are trying a slightly altered format again this week. We received a note that providing 3-4 receivers and running backs was bordering on feeding our readers lineups, so we will be limiting each position group to a ‘best bet’ and ‘best value’ pick.
Week 7 Early Fan Picks QB Plays
Best Bet: Deshaun Watson – $6,300
I know what you’re thinking… with so much value available in this slate, how do you list anyone other than Mahomes as your lock. Especially with Clemson facing a top 12 scoring and yardage defense. There are a few reasons I like Watson and Clemson this week. First of all, West Virginia’s corners are elite, which is going to allow them to do things defensively that most other teams can’t. If you can go man on the outside, overload the box, blitz every down, swarm those short passes TT throws… It’s part of the reason Mahomes only threw for 196 yards in this game last season.
The other part of the equation is what Watson did to NC State last season… Over 430 yards and 6 touchdowns, about 47 FanPicks points or roughly an average game for Mahomes. Of course the difference is Watson is over $3k cheaper, and Mahomes is in a below average matchup. That being said, you can easily start both quarterbacks this week.
Best Value: Kurt Benkert – $5,400
This is as easy a pick as you will find in this weekend’s slates. Virginia is facing a Pitt defense that has the 126th ranked pass defense and 15th ranked run defense. Benkert is coming off the two best games of his career, and faces the worst power 5 pass defense in the country. The downside to Benkert is you will get zero to even negative points out of him running the football.
Week 7 Early Fan Picks RB Plays
Best Bet: Samaje Perine – $5,200
It truly is running back weekend in fantasy sports… We could have put 10 RB’s in our week 6 DraftKings NFL primer and there are probably 10 RB’s in this slate that are worth a look. We will take Perine, the best back available in the slate, with a guaranteed workload, in a solid matchup. Kansas State’s defensive numbers have been bloated by a favorable schedule, they haven’t faced a back or offense like Oklahoma yet this season. Keep in mind they got off to a similar start last season, and ended up giving up 176 rushing YPG. Coming off a week that saw him get 35 carries, look for Perine to carry the Sooners the rest of the way this season.
Best Value: Dedrick Mills – $4,800
We were all set to pencil in Justin Crawford here, but made a last second decision to swap him for Dedrick Mills. Dedrick Mills is the opposite thing from a lock, but needs to be owned in at least one of your early lineups. If you look back at games where Ga Tech puts up big points, which I think they will against Ga Southern, the back that puts his hand in the ground scores 2-4 touchdowns. Mills is tied for third in the ACC in rushing touchdowns, and is the Jackets leading rusher. Although he’s more explosive than someone like Skov was, he’s likely not going to give you huge yardage, but could have a 3-4 TD game here.
Week 7 Early Fan Picks WR Plays
Best Bet: Shelton Gibson – $5,300
Gibson has average 143 receiving yards per game over West Virginia’s past three, and faces a Texas Tech defense that allows 8.0 yards per attempt at home (98th nationally). Despite averaging 35 YPC over those three games, Gibson didn’t score a single touchdown, which has capped his fantasy value at $5,300. Look for him to break that streak and catch at least one touchdown this week.
Best Value: Malik Turner – $4,900
Not a huge gap between the best bet and best value in this slate, but I don’t see a reason to dip below the $4,900 price at receiver. Even at $5,000 per receiver, you can start both Mahomes and Watson this week. Turner’s usage has been off the charts this season and is only trending up. He’s currently being targeted on over 32% of Illinois passes. That sort of workload against a defense that gave up 136 points the past two weeks should mean big time numbers this week.
Week 7 Early Fan Picks TE Plays
Best Bet: Jaylen Samuels – $4,900
Throw out the disaster of a game NC State and Notre Dame played in hurricane Matthew last week, and Samuels is yet to disappoint us this season. The best part about starting Samuels against a team like Clemson, is that his workload goes up as the opponent difficulty goes up. In this game last season, he had 14 total touches for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Clemson defense is red hot, so a repeat of those numbers may be a pipe dream, but it’s a win if you get half of that production out of a tight end in this slate.
Fan Picks CFB Week 7 Afternoon Slate
Week 7 Afternoon Fan Picks QB Plays
Best Bet: Seth Russell – $6,900
We gave Russell as a pick last week, and cited his increased role in the Baylor running game as the main reason. Russell is 6’4″ 220 lbs, runs a 4.4 40, and was one of the more efficient running QBs in the country in his 7 game in 2015 (8.2 YPC). Last week Russell put up 21 points on the ground, but this week we think he will do more damage through the air. All American receiver KD Cannon is back, and the Jayhawks defense is currently allowing 278 passing yards per game, and over 300 in Big 12 conference play.
Best Value: Jerod Evans – $6,400
Again, not a huge gap here, but we aren’t starting a scrub QB if we don’t have to. Evans is the Seth Russell of the ACC… Running Fuente’s system, Evans has 30 point upside as a passer, but will also give you 10-20 PPG on the ground. His week 7 opponent, the Syracuse Orange, can score some points, but give up over 530 yards per game. We think Va Tech wins big here, and Evans has a 400 yard game.
Week 7 Afternoon Fan Picks RB Plays
Best Bet: Dalvin Cook – $7,000
This marks four straight weeks that Cook has found his way into our picks for the week, but once again, at $7,000, he’s an absolute lock to reach 4x value. Wake is currently only allowing 130 rushing YPG (29th in the nation), but it’s clearly irrelevant to Cook who just went over 200 yards against Miami who also came in as one of the better run defenses in the nation.
Best Value: Shock Linwood – $3,800
Prior to last week’s 237 yard explosion, Linwood had been completely removed from the Baylor game plan. Nobody runs harder or racks up more YAC when he’s on, but when he’s off he’s an absolute mental case… fumbles, missed holes, dropped passes… Facing a porous Jayhawk defense, coming off the best game of his career, I think he’s worth a shot in week 7. He likely hasn’t jumped sophomore Terence Williams, so I wouldn’t go too crazy with him this week, but clearly has the highest ceiling of the backs priced under $4,000.
Week 7 Afternoon Fan Picks WR Plays
Best Bet: KD Cannon – $5,700
Team mate Lynx Hawthorne called KD a weapon of mass destruction returning to the lineup this week. He’s clearly going to be fired up, and as we mentioned earlier, faces a bottom 10 defense that, between Russell, Linwood, and Williams, will have their hands full at the line of scrimmage. We know how it works in Baylor, if the safeties even think about moving towards the box, Cannon (Texas state 100 and 200 champion in high school) is going over the top.
Best Value: LaQuvionte Gonzalez – $4,300
The Jayhawks can’t run the ball, at all, but their passing game has shown a pulse at times and kept them in the game against TCU last week. Gonzalez has seen his target rate climb every week this season, and to date, has been targeted on 25% of KU passes. He put up 8/131 against TCU, and while Sims has more upside, is the possession receiver that will benefit most from the volume that opponents facing Baylor see.
Week 7 Afternoon Fan Picks TE Plays
Best Bet: Bucky Hodges – $3,500
The tight end position for this slate, as it so often is in CFB, is a dumpster fire. Hodges has been the most consistent and productive tight end of this group, and with 15 career touchdowns has red zone ability.