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FanDuel NFL Week 4 Primer – Top Picks and Bargains

Top Week 4 Stacks by Value for FanDuel

As always, let’s get our FanDuel week started by identifying the top available stacks by value for the week. We analyzed all 24 starting quarterbacks and their pass catchers, created projections for each, and calculated value to identify these top stacks for week 4 action.

Newton / Benjamin
Combined Salary : $17,000
Projected Points: 48 / Stack Value: 2.82
Cousins / Reed
Combined Salary : $15,900
Projected Points: 41.5 / Stack Value: 2.70
Stafford / Jones
Combined Salary : $15,900
Projected Points: 42 / Stack Value: 2.64

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fanduel-nfl-perfect-lineupWhile we were able to cash with all of our stacks last week, the top stack in week 3 FanDuel action was actually Trevor Siemian and Emmanuel Sanders. A stack we gave out in our week 2 picks.

As far as our week three stacks are concerned, we actually love three sets of QB/WR/TE. While we aren’t likely to own any shares of Greg Olsen, he is a safe cash game start in week 4. We all saw what Fleener did to this Atlanta defense on Monday night, and Walford went for 5/60/1 the week before. I think Olsen ends up somewhere around 15 points this week, but prefer the upside of Kelvin Benjamin here. Coming into week 3 averaging 22+ PPG, he had the worst game of his career, which sets him up nicely for a big bounce back week here. For those that didn’t see the game, Xavier Rhodes is back for the Vikings, looked healthy, and still dominates big receivers. The Falcons defense dominates nothing.

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With Cousins, our top projected value stack is Jordan Reed, simply because we think he scores at least once. You will find on DraftKings, that we are stacking Cousins with a vastly underpriced Jamison Crowder. If you pull up the Redskins game log from 2015, and single out matchups with bottom third defenses, you will find that Cousins and Reed shredded them last season. In fact, in 6 games against bottom third defenses last season, Reed had 10 touchdowns. The Browns clearly qualify as a bottom third defense.

Finally, the Lions’ deadly combination of Stafford, Jones, and Ebron. Coming into this season, analysts across the league said that Jones couldn’t replace Megatron and Stafford would never be the same. Well, after the first three weeks of the season, guess who is on pace to break Johnson’s single season yards record? The Bears defense has too many injuries to list, and this week they finally shut Kyle Fuller down for the year. Meaning, you get the red hot Marvin Jones matched up with Tracy Porter, and if they roll safety help over Ebron is going to torch them over the middle. I have no issue starting all three Lions together on FanDuel this week.

Best of the Rest: Our Top Week 4 Plays

Melvin Gordon

FanDuel Price – $7,600
Looking at the group of runners priced above $6,800, I think there are four guys worth rostering in week 4: Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, CJ Anderson, and Melvin Gordon. Of the four, Gordon not only has the best matchup, but is at home and I think will have lower ownership because he didn’t look as good as we thought he would in a good matchup last week. However, we think he gets to 120 yards and at least one score here, making him the number one running back in our week 4 player rankings.

Mark Ingram

FanDuel Price – $6,800
Coming off his first solid game of the season, we expect Ingram to have another big performance against a bottom 6 RB defense. The Chargers are giving up over 26 FanDuel PPG to opposing running backs, including over 130 total yards per game. The area of his game you have to think Ingram really improves on is as a pass catcher. The Chargers are giving up 9/72 to opposing running backs in the passing game, an area Ingram excelled last season, but hasn’t got going in 2016.

Jordan Howard

FanDuel Price – $5,600
The stars have aligned for Howard this week. Starter Langford is out, Ka’Deem Carey still isn’t practicing, and the Bears face a bottom 5 defense in the Lions. Howard managed to put up 11 points in limited action against the Cowboys last week, showing some pass catching ability. If he is the every down back here for week 4, look for him to easily reach 3x value in this matchup.

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Julio Jones

FanDuel Price – $8,500
Julio is due, the game is at home, the Panthers secondary has looked suspect without Norman this season, and he destroyed them in their last meeting (9/178/1). He is our top receiver for this slate.

Travis Benjamin

FanDuel Price – $6,600
Tyrell Williams saw more targets than Benjamin in week 3, but part of the reason for that was the return of Vontae Davis. Against a secondary that doesn’t have a shut down corner, we are predicting that Benjamin’s efficiency returns closer to what we saw in week 2. Gates still isn’t practicing, which means Benjamin could be busy in the red zone again this week.

Jamison Crowder

FanDuel Price – $6,000
We love this matchup for Crowder this week. DeSean Jackson will see one of the 5 highest rated corners in the NFL this season in Joe Hayden, leaving Crowder with one of the remaining bums Cleveland fills it’s secondary out with. Crowder is currently tied with Jackson and Reed for the team lead in targets, and also leads the team in receptions and touchdowns. He’s an even better play on DraftKings, but I think Crowder pushes 3x value on FanDuel as well.

Kevin White

FanDuel Price – $5,500
You still have to have some exposure to Alshon Jeffery here, but it seems likely the Lions shut down corner, Darius Slay, shadows Jeffery leaving White to feast on Quandre Diggs and Nevin Lawson. Lawson plays outside and has been beat deep several times already this season. White has established himself as Hoyer’s favorite target through 1.5 games, and has legitimate 4x upside in this matchup.

Hunter Henry

FanDuel Price – $4,500
We already discussed Jordan Reed and Eric Ebron, the other tight end on our radar is Hunter Henry. Once Gates was confirmed out, we plugged him into our picks last week and had it not been for a late fumble lost, he actually would have had a solid game for a minimum salary player. If Gates is out again, Henry could see his role expand even further against a Saints defense that hasn’t showed a pulse in a half-decade.

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