Building a Winning FanDuel NFL Strategy
If you are struggling to build a FanDuel NFL strategy that wins consistently, then this article could be just what you are looking for. Our strategy is simple and straightforward, set a target score, build accurate projections, find value, and build winning lineups based around the type of contest you are entering.
Improve Your Workflow
Before we jump into the details of our FanDuel NFL strategy, we wanted to take a minute to plug a DFS tool that has greatly improved our workflow, and that we think will do wonders for yours… RotoQL. Throughout this article you will hear us talk about defense vs position (DvP), last 4 games average, targets, red zone targets, system, pace, Vegas totals, and more.
Finding and analyzing all of this data could take you hours every week, but RotoQL provides you a workspace that feeds you this data and then allows you to build your lineups right from the software. Have you ever gotten down to that last WR spot, with $5,500 left, and struggled to decide who to play? RotoQL will calculate what player under $5,500 is the best play in their matchup that week.
Once your lineups are built, simply export them from the tool, and upload them directly into your FanDuel contests. RotoQL has greatly improved our NFL performance, while decreasing the amount of time we spend building and uploading lineups. We urge you to give them a try for free today by following the link below.
It’s amazing how may daily fantasy players ask us what value is and how you calculate it. Value is a straightforward concept, it doesn’t matter how you calculate it so long as it’s constant and allows you to differentiate between two given players at different prices and projections.
Let’s say you are trying to decide between Lamar Miller at $6,800 or Marshawn Lynch at $8,400. You have projections (that you trust) at 16.8 for Miller and 19.9 for Lynch? Which player is a better value? The way we calculate it is to take the thousand and hundred value in the player price, turn them into a single digit, then divide their projection by that number. So Miller’s value would be 16.8/6.8 or 2.47 and Lynch’s value would be 2.369.
So you have your projections, can assign value, now what? Now we just want maximize our $60,000 salary, aiming for your target number with both GPP and Cash game lineups.
What is a cash game and what should my target score be?
A cash game is a 50/50 or head-to-head contest. Scoring is always lower in these contests, so your aim should be to build a safe lineup. Our cash game targets generally have low floors, we are looking for players in plus matchups and guaranteed usage. Your target number for cash games should be 130 (2.17 value)… If you can consistently hit 130 points, you can consistently win money on FanDuel.
What is a GPP and what should my target score be?
A GPP is a Guaranteed Prize Pool tournament. You will find that guys take more chances, and given a higher number of entries and top-heavy payout structure, your target score goes way up. Your target number for GPP contests should be 200 (3.33 value). This is a monster number, and can be extremely difficult to hit consistently.
Given just how much harder it is to cash out on large GPP’s, we recommend you focus on cash games, specifically smaller 50/50 contests, and small 50 entry or smaller GPP contests. Managing your bankroll this way will ensure that you never have a terrible week that wipes your FanDuel account out and puts you out of the game.
Understanding Player Matchups
In an attempt to keep this straight forward and easy to understand, here are some very simple things you should be looking at when analyzing a player’s matchup:
Defense vs Position – This is the most obvious statistic to look at in any sport, and is the easiest to find data on. How many points per week has the opponent given up to the position over their last 4 games, on the season as a whole, to this specific player in the past, etc…
Defense vs Role – This specific stat applies more to wide receiver than any other position. Often times you will find a defense like Atlanta two seasons ago that gave up massive passing yards, but actually shut down WR1’s. Why? Because Desomond Trufant was taking away the opponents number one, but the number two, slot receiver, and tight ends were destroying the other members of the Falcons secondary. You can find defense vs number 1, 2, 3, slot and tight end numbers, and find value receivers in great matchups.
Pace – Pace is huge in daily fantasy, because the game revolves around opportunities, targets, carries, and faster pace creates more plays and more opportunities. When breaking down a matchup’s pace, keep this in mind: a player is not affected by his own team’s pace. His average already reflects playing at that pace. A player is only affected by the opponent’s pace of play. We use pace as a multiplier in our algorithm (the average team runs 63 plays per game, with a high of 70 (Houston – 1.1 multiplier) and a low of 57 (St. Louis – .904 multiplier).
Vegas Total – Nobody is better at projecting NFL totals than Vegas, so you better pay attention to how many points they say each team is going to score. Target players on teams with high totals, avoid players on teams with low totals, easy.
One Dimensional Defenses – Our absolute favorite matchup is a team that stops the run but can’t stop the pass, or stops the pass but can’t stop the run. NFL offenses don’t like to slam their head into a wall, so if the opposing defense is holding them to 2 YPC, you can expect them to stop running. Case in point: Philly, the Eagles had a top run defense, but horrible pass defense, and as a result opposing QB’s hit value against them 13 times last season.
More to come…
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