DraftKings

FanDuel and DraftKings NFL Week 7 Lineup Strategy

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With some really high quality bargain plays available at every position on FanDuel and DraftKings, this is shaping up to be one of those slates where you can essentially build any roster you want by including 2-3 of these bargain plays that are almost guaranteed to hit 3-4x value.

For week 7, we are trying something a little different and are sharing an expanded player pool for this slate. If you use a lineup tool like RotoQL, import this pool of players into your lineups and let it spit out winning combinations.

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Our Week 7 FanDuel and DraftKings Targets

Unless some crazy late scratches happen, I think we have nailed down both the top targets and bargain plays for week 7. Consider these plays worth ownership in both cash and GPP lineups. We have increased the number of picks bigly so we will try and keep the reason for each pick brief.

Quarterback Targets

Blake Bortles

DraftKings Price – $6,200
FanDuel Price – $7,400

It seems as though half the quarterbacks end up in the 18-24 point range each week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Find the cheapest QB that could be considered a lock to get there and get them in your lineup. We all know Oakland, San Fran, and San Diego defenses struggle regardless of where they plan, and they tend to give up massive numbers when they travel to the east coast. The uptempo Jags passing game should have a field day this week.

Tyrod Taylor

DraftKings Price – $5,500
FanDuel Price – $7,700

Gillislee will obviously be the most popular player in daily fantasy if Shady is out, but Tyrod may be the biggest beneficiary. Not so much as a runner, he’s locked into that 3-13 range every week, but as a passer. Taylor is averaging 17 DraftKings PPG on just 17 completions per game. If he can get that number up to 25 against the Dolphins, I think he has a legitimate shot at 5x value. With Woods now out, he’s an obvious stack with Charles Clay, who could catch 10+ passes here.

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Running Back Targets

DeMarco Murray

DraftKings Price – $7,200
FanDuel Price – $8,700

There is no way you can crunch the numbers for these week 6 running backs and not have Murray as your top rated RB. The Colts give up over 32 DraftKings PPG, and no running back has a larger workload or red zone target share than Murray right now. Volume touches in a favorable matchup is always DFS gold.

Spencer Ware

DraftKings Price – $5,800
FanDuel Price – $7,000

We were all set to pull the trigger on Charles, and likely still will on FanDuel, but given his knee apparently still isn’t right Ware should get 20 carries again this week which means 125 yards and 1-2 touchdowns against the Saints. Andy Reid RB’s consistently lead the NFL in yards per carry, and are a can’t miss play against a Saints defense that is currently giving up nearly 160 YPG to opposing running backs.

Jacquizz Rodgers

DraftKings Price – $4,300
FanDuel Price – $5,600

We all know Dirk Koetter’s game plan: feed Martin or Rodgers 25-30 times and limit the number of opportunities Winston has to make a mistake. We aren’t buying the Bucs as a power run team, but against the 49ers defense we will certainly have plenty of shares of Rodgers this week. San Francisco has allowed over 38 DraftKings PPG to running backs over the past four weeks… only one point behind the Saints and over 5 points more than the next worst def vs RB’s.

Matt Jones

DraftKings Price – $4,200
FanDuel Price – $6,700

The Lions are yet to give up a rushing touchdown, but I think, even more so than their recent shootouts, this game has volume written all over it. Jones may not need to score a touchdown to reach 4x value here. We expect a volume game here with a line in the neighborhood of 18 touches for 110 total yards and at least 15 DraftKings points. If you tack on a touchdown he will get to 5x.

Mike Gillislee

DraftKings Price – $3,000
FanDuel Price – $5,300

There is a zero percent chance Gillislee misses value this week if McCoy is out. I wouldn’t hesitate to go to 100% ownership on him, there is zero reason not to. At worst he would have a line in the neighborhood of 12 carries for 75 yards with 4 catches for 20 yards: 13.5 points or 3.5x value.

Wide Receiver Targets

Julio Jones

DraftKings Price – $9,200
FanDuel Price – $9,200

You always want some share of Julio at home, but in a matchup like this I think you bump him up to around 33% and include a Ryan/Jones stack with whoever your main QBs are for the slate. The Chargers were a top 15 defense vs number 1 receivers, but with Jason Verrett out and a clicking Falcons offense and running game, I don’t see how San Diego deals with him Sunday.

Mike Evans

DraftKings Price – $7,800
FanDuel Price – $8,000

If you are looking for the defense that leads the NFL in points above expected for number one receivers this season, it’s the 49ers. Mike Evans was already a target machine in this offense, but with Vincent Jackson on the IR his targets and red zone share could skyrocket even more. I think he’s the WR lock of the week in a dream matchup here.

Allen Robinson

DraftKings Price – $7,300
FanDuel Price – $8,400

We wrote earlier in the week that if you are looking at value alone, Marqise Lee is the right play here. Lee has averaged over 3x value the past four weeks, a stretch that Robinson has averaged just 2x value despite scoring 3 TD’s in those four games. However, we know that Robinson has that big GPP upside and is more than capable of putting up 150 yards and 2 touchdowns this week. I would have more shares of Evans and Jones, but will definitely have a Bortles/Robinson stack in play this week.

Jamison Crowder

DraftKings Price – $4,300
FanDuel Price – $6,200

I know Davis got the score, but Crowder also saw an additional 10%+ in snaps, meaning in addition to his usual role, he absorbed some of Reed’s duties on passing downs. While his target share has dipped, with Garcon’s share jumping way up, Crowder remains the most efficient Redskins receiver, and still leads the team in touchdowns. This week he faces a Detroit team that has been decimated by opposing slot receivers this season.

Pierre Garcon

DraftKings Price – $3,700
FanDuel Price – $6,100

Garcon’s current DraftKings price just doesn’t match his role and production. At $3,700, Garcon has gone over 3x in each of his last two games, and 3 of 6 this season. With Reed now out for a second week, I expect Garcon to see another 8-11 targets this week which should mean at least 6/90 or 4x+ value against this Lion’s defense.

Marqise Lee

DraftKings Price – $3,200
FanDuel Price – $4,500

For those in Jacksonville, they have been waiting for this Marqise Lee to show up since drafting him 39th overall in 2014. He has caught 20 of 26 targets over the past four weeks, and despite not scoring a touchdown, has actually seen his red zone role expand 6 targets over that stretch (even share with Robinson and Hurns).

Tight End Targets

Delanie Walker

DraftKings Price – $4,900
FanDuel Price – $6,500

The addition of Kendal Walker, who is clearly a better receiver than starters Johnson and Sharpe, muddles the fantasy value of the Titans receiving corps. However, it should have zero effect on Walker’s role in the offense. While Johnson and Sharpe’s snap count dropped to a season low, Walker’s remained consistent and 7% higher than any of the receivers. The Colts have been better defensively, but still give up over 14 PPG to opposing tight ends. If you are looking for a Titan to abuse the beat up Colts secondary, I would bet on it being Walker.

Charles Clay

DraftKings Price – $3,000
FanDuel Price – $5,100

We mentioned Clay in our Taylor breakdown, but expect to see him extremely busy this week. No McCoy, Watkins, or Woods makes Clay the last man standing in this Bills offense. Hunter and Goodwin will be the starting receivers, but both are the same sort of big play specialist. Clay could see a crazy 35-40% target share this week, which would result in 3x value in receptions alone.

Cameron Brate

DraftKings Price – $2,900
FanDuel Price – $5,200

Brate let us down in week 5, but we aren’t giving up on him just yet. He already had a sizeable target share in Tampa, and with Jackson now out, will likely see that role expand even more. With a 15% target rate, and 24% red zone target rate coming into this matchup with the soft 49ers secondary we expect to see those numbers jump higher and convert into a touchdown this week.

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Jack Doyle

DraftKings Price – $2,500
FanDuel Price – $4,700

Speaking of expanding roles, with Dwayne Allen officially out, we are targeting Doyle at home in what should be a bigly expanded role in this Colts offense. I don’t think you can just combine Doyle and Allen’s target numbers, but with Dorsett also out, it shouldn’t be too far off. The two have received a 22% target rate and 26% red zone target rate this season. Additionally, Dorsett was at 11% and 16%… It’s hard to bet against Andrew Luck in any matchup, so someone is going to have to catch the ball here, and the Colts aren’t going to run the ball on the Titans.

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