College

Fan Picks CFB Week 3 Early Slate Lineup Strategy

Top Plays for Early Week 3 Fan Picks College Football Slate

Fan Picks has officially rolled out their new college football format, which includes a second quarterback and utility spot. Player pricing took a major step forward as well, you won’t find any legit starters at the minimum salary in this slate. Both of these changes should level out ownership levels and slightly lower scoring for this week three slate.

fan-picks-late-contest

TeamProjected Total
Clemson55
Texas Christian43
Tennessee42
Wisconsin42
Memphis40
Florida State34
Rutgers32
Penn State32
Louisville32
Miami29

Early Week 3 CFB Quarterback Plays

Kenny Hill
Fan Picks Salary – $9,100
Given the matchups, I prefer Hill over Jackson this week as Jackson’s running all but disappeared against defenses with a pulse last season (combined 87 yards against Houston, Florida State, Boston College, and Pittsburgh last season). There is at least some chance Louisville’s offense gets exposed here, whereas there is no chance ISU slows down Hill and TCU.

TCU clearly has little interest in running the football, so Hill should throw it a ton. Additionally, he is the only threat to run inside the 5, and should account for close to 100% of the scoring for TCU in this favorable matchup with Iowa State.

Riley Ferguson
Fan Picks Salary – $5,100
Facing Kansas and priced at $5,100, Ferguson seems like an easy lock this week. For those that need a reminder, Kansas was the 124th ranked pass defense in 2015, allowing 293.7 passing yards per game. Ferguson threw it 40 times in his first career game and we think that number jumps up even higher this week.

Early Week 3 CFB Running Back Plays

Saquon Barkley
Fan Picks Salary – $7,400
In 2015, Temple had one of the strongest defenses in the nation, ranking in the top 20 nationally in rushing yards per game at 127.7 per. They lost both starting defensive tackles and all-world linebacker Tyler Matekevich (138 tackles LY), and allowed 329 rushing yards to Army in week one. Saquon Barkley could have another monster multi-touchdown game here.

Mark Walton
Fan Picks Salary – $6,800
Just give me Mark Richt, Bret Bielema, and Paul Chryst’s running back and I’ll be good every year. Given Yearby’s presence, he isn’t my favorite back in this slate, but he is clearly the better back and has 271 yards, 5 touchdowns, and is averaging 8.5 YPC in 2 games this season.

Wayne Gallman
Fan Picks Salary – $4,440
Gallman is underpriced this week. Go back and look at past Clemson blowouts, the only consistent performer is the starting RB. South Carolina State is the worst team we have seen on Fan Picks this season, but Gallman is still a lock for 15-20 carries which is more than enough to get him to 150 yards and a score.

Corey Clement
Fan Picks Salary – $5,100
Clement finally looks like the guy he did pre-2015 injury. The Wisconsin offensive line has been the best in the nation through two weeks. The combination will keep Clement a good play most weeks this season.

Early Week 3 CFB Wide Receiver Plays

Janarion Grant
Fan Picks Salary – $6,200
Grant is the only Rutgers player we like in a really, really good matchup at home against New Mexico. He has dominated as the Wildcat QB this season, and has also dominated in the Rutgers passing game, with a target rate over 28%. Whether Rutgers runs it or throws it, Grant will be involved and will have a big week 3 performance.

Allen Lazard
Fan Picks Salary – $5,600
Lazard is one of the more physical receivers in the nation, something TCU struggled with last season and again this year with Jake Wieneke (8/196/2) and Drew Morgan (7/93/1). This game is going to go the way Iowa State hopes it won’t, they are going to have to throw it a ton to try and keep pace. After going over 100 yards in each of the first two games, including 111 against one of the better secondaries in the nation in Iowa, Lazard will have a field day here. He has been targeted on over 41% of Cyclones passes this season.

Anthony Miller
Fan Picks Salary – $5,200
Miller is going to have an absolute monster season for Memphis in 2016. Get in on it early, while he is still under $7,000. Again, Kansas is a bottom 5 pass defense nationally, and Memphis will throw it a ton. Their short passing game replaces their run game, and Miller dominates here. He was targeted on 31.6% of Tiger passes in their first game. Look for even more production here, and he is also a threat to return a punt for 6.

Chris Godwin
Fan Picks Salary – $3,800
Godwin missed parts of last week’s game with an injury, so double check his status prior to lineups locking. If he is active, he is a solid play at $3,800. Trace McSorley has looked as good running Franklin’s offense as Hackenberg ever did. Even with Hack at the helm, Godwin went over 100 yards in 6 of Penn State’s final 8 games last season with 4 touchdowns over that stretch. If Barkley is rolling and forces 8 in the box, Godwin could find space over the top of the Temple defense.

Early Week 3 CFB Tight End Plays

David Jnoku
Fan Picks Salary – $2,900
Fan Picks got the tight end pricing right. The guys we like: Njoku (18% target rate), Gesicki(19% target rate), Fumagalli (20% target rate), and Hikutini (12% target rate) are at the top of the position group. We like this matchup for Njoku and feel like the best games for both he and Kaaya are ahead of them. Given the fact that he is also $500-$1,000 cheaper than the other guys on this list, he is our tight end play for this slate.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Bill

    September 13, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    Wanted to comment on the pricing this week…It appears (at least at the first few glances) that they really just took everyone’s 2 week average and priced in descending order with no regard for context. For example JuJu Smith for USC was almost always one of the top priced WRs last year on FanDuel. He had a rough game week 1 vs Alabama and a decent line last week. He is only 4200. Lenoard Fournette was held out last week and struggled week 1. He is expected to play and only priced at $5400. Similar pricing for Cook, Chubb, and I’m sure a slew of other potential stars that are off to a slower than expected start. This worries me because it means more time is needed studying the pricing and if I don’t catch a potential stud player that is under priced and others do I’ll be at a disadvantage for not having said player in my lineup. The guys I mentioned above jump off the page because they are house held names. What I am hoping this site can provide is more insight into these under priced players who have just under performed so far….Unless I am reading into the pricing wrong but I don’t think so…Anthony Scott for $8,200, come on.

    • Chris Lollis

      Chris Lollis

      September 14, 2016 at 10:39 am

      Hey Bill, you are 100% right, but this is a problem that should eventually correct itself. Fan Picks player pricing is 100% algorithm based, I believe they adjusted it to be entirely based off this season’s numbers, which fixed issues with new players being underpriced, but created issues with pricing on guys that are off to slow starts. This means a player will be underpriced until they have that break out game. We will check on this again with Fan Picks this week to see if there is a chance of adding a human review to the player pricing process, but as of now you have to review each position group for each team to make sure you aren’t missing one of the gaffs you mentioned.

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