DraftKings NFL Week 6 Primer
This article will break down our favorite DraftKings plays for the sixth week of the NFL season. Our week 5 bargain picks were our worst of the season. We preferred Siemian, but went with Paxton Lynch in what looked like a layup matchup with the banged up Falcons, he was awful. DeAndre Washington hit exactly 3x value, but we were expecting more. Sammie Coates obviously worked out, Eddie Royal’s 2.7x performance was a bit of a dud, and tight ends Brate and Doyle are dead to us.
It was a whacky, wild week 5, but we are pulling a 360 in strategy and performance this week with some surefire picks to get you back into the money with your week 6 DraftKings lineups.
Week 6 DraftKings Quarterbacks
Best Bet: Drew Brees – $7,900
If you are looking for a cash game lock at QB, Drew Brees is it. He is always a safe bet at home, but you have to particularly like him against a Carolina defense that is currently really struggling against the pass. We know New Orleans can not and will not run here, and if Cam is back you can expect the Panthers to put up some points on the Saints defense, so this could be one of those 350/4 type games out of Brees in what should be a close ball game.
Best Value: Tyrod Taylor – $5,300
Let me preface this by saying that if you are reading this in prep for building Thursday-Monday lineups, it’s Trevor Siemian. For those of you that argued that Paxton Lynch would be just as effective in Kubiak’s offense, I think we got our answer to that question last week. Back to T2, we are sold he has a 25 point performance in week 6. After facing the Jets, Cardinal, Patriots, and Rams in the past four weeks, and averaging 19 DraftKings PPG over that stretch, Taylor finally gets a favorable matchup. Since their week one shutout of the Rams, the 49ers have given up 24 PPG to opposing QB’s. Very little pressure, leaky secondary, and a QB that gets you 5+ PPG on the ground… you can’t go wrong here.
Week 6 DraftKings Running Backs
Best Bet: Le’Veon Bell – $7,900
I could make an argument for McCoy, Murray, Anderson, or Gurley, but why would I when the best RB on the board is only $200-$1,000 more. Bell leads all non-QB players in DraftKings PPG, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season. He’s averaging 105 rushing yards per game, but is also giving you 13 DraftKings PPG as a receiver. When he starts tacking on touchdowns this week, he will officially replace teammate AB atop the fantasy throne.
Best Value: James White – $4,100
Value is tough at running back this week. I think you need to own 2 or maybe even 3 of the top available backs, then find value at QB/WR/TE. However, if you are forcing my hand, I would roll out James White. There are no locks under $5,000 this week, in fact there are realistically only 3 or 4 backs even worth a look in this price range, and James White and Ryan Matthews are the two that I will have some share of on Sunday. As predicted, White saw his snap count and workload jump with Brady back in the lineup. We think he would have seen even more snaps had the game not gotten so out of hand early on. White’s gone over 3x value for two straight weeks, and if he sees his snap count jump to over 50%, he should easily make it a third in week 6.
Week 6 DraftKings Wide Receivers
Best Bet: Jarvis Landry – $6,800
The name of the game at receiver this week is targets and value. We think we have a bunch of points locked up by paying up at the running back and flex spots, so our WR1 and WR2 need to come from the $6,400-$7,200 range. Which receivers have WR1, 25 point upside out of this group. Landry in an extremely favorable spot jumps out at me. We have made a big deal out of the PAE the Steelers have given up over the past two seasons, but it’s a real thing. They are currently giving up the 9th most wide receiver yards per game despite facing a less than stellar group of QBs this season (Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins). Tannehill is another bad QB you can add to that list, but if you are telling the Dolphins receivers are going to put up 200 yards here, give me Landry all day. Tannehill will not have time to sit back and let Parker and Stills work downfield. Rather, he and Gase will pick apart this leaky secondary using Landry in the short passing game.
Best Value: Tavon Austin – $3,900
Remember what I lead with for the receiver section of this article: targets and value. Nobody in the week 6 slate has as much value upside as Tavon Austin. Why? Matchup and volume of targets. The Lions are horrendous at defending the slot receiver, and Austin gets 11 targets per game out of the slot. 11 targets out of the slot against this Lions defense, will yield you 114% points above expected. So you can essentially double Austin’s season average of 11.2 PPG, which is already 2.9x value. As you can see in our example lineup to the right, starting a receiver under $4,000 allows you to target to receivers in the $7,000 range, as well as three RB’s from our group of death.
Week 6 DraftKings Tight Ends
Best Bet: Jimmy Graham – $4,900
When I say Jimmy Graham’s name people listen. Actually, I have no idea if that’s true, this is the first time Graham has made one of our articles in the past 2 years. However, he has absorbed all of Tyler Locket’s (torn PCL) workload, and this is a dream matchup. The Falcons give up the third most PPG to opposing tight ends, and you can expect to see lockdown corner Desmond Trufant shadowing Doug Baldwin. My guess is Carroll is well aware of both points and will have a Graham-heavy game plan.
Best Value: Charles Clay – $2,900
Speaking of firsts, we could have included four Bills players in one article this week. I love Taylor, McCoy, Woods, and Clay this week, and considering Vegas expects this offense to score 4 touchdowns, would have no problem owning them all… just not at the same time. I’m stacking T2 with Charles Clay for a few reasons. First, Clay has the highest red zone workload of any Bills player. If the Bills are scoring 4 touchdowns, he’s the best bet to get at least one of them. Second, Clay has seen his workload in each game since Watkins was placed on the IR and the Bill changed offensive coordinators. That’s a trend we are buying into in this favorable matchup.