It’s week three of the CFL season, and DraftKings has a nice slate with over $40,000 in guaranteed contests. The pricing for this slate remains fairly soft, with a ton of value available, particularly at the receiver position. Let’s start by taking a look at the Vegas lines for this week.
Vegas currently has Calgary, Ottawa, and Winnipeg projected as the top scoring offenses. No hug surprises there, Calgary and Bo Levi Mitchell are clearly the class of the league, and face a Winnipeg defense that gave up 40 points to Saskatchewan last week. Trevor Harris continues to be virtually unstoppable, and completed 60 of 80 passes for 750+ yards and 5 touchdowns against a strong Calgary defense.
It’s likely that Mitchell, Harris, and Nichols will all be highly owned, and a good portion of owners will also chase Glenn’s week 2 performance, which we called here last week. If you are looking for a sleeper that should have low ownership, give Zach Collaros a look. Hamilton has had two weeks to address the protection issues that doomed them against Toronto, and face a Saskatchewan defense that gave up the second most points in the CFL last season, and 43 to Winnipeg last week.
CFL Week 3 Quarterback Plays
Bo Levi Mitchell
While we do like Collaros as a likely low-ownership sleeper, Mitchell is the safe play here. Facing a Winnipeg defense that was shredded by Kevin Glenn last week, Mitchell comes in red hot. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 11 of his last 12, a stretch that has seen him average 300 yards per game. This isn’t the week to get too cute at the QB or RB position. The value is clearly at receiver in this slate.
CFL Week 3 Running Back Plays
Despite getting just 23 carries over his first two games, Jeremiah Johnson has managed to put up 21 DraftKings PPG. He is currently averaging 7 ypc, and has been particularly effective in the red zone with a touchdown in each of BC’s first two games. Similar the QB spot this week, RB isn’t an area to try and find a sleeper. However, if you are looking to fade Johnson, Harris, and Messam, I think the Ottawa RB situation is most intriguing. William Powell is as good of a back as you will find in the CFL, and could be a low owned, high ceiling player if he is active.
CFL Week 3 Wide Receiver Plays
We love high ceiling players in slates like this, and perhaps no player in this slate has as high of a ceiling as Daniels. In his first season in the CFL, Daniels had over 900 yards and 9 touchdowns despite playing in just 11 games. He’s a future superstar and arguably the league’s top deep threat with Derel Walker back in the NFL and Chris Williams on the IR. Look for a monster performance out of Daniels, who faces a Winnipeg secondary that gave up 377/4 to Kevin Glenn.
Daniels continues to show off speed, sets up game-tying field goal late in the 3rd quarter. pic.twitter.com/xlZHOdH65M
— CFL on TSN (@CFLonTSN) June 24, 2017
Another receiver with an insane ceiling, like Daniels, Adams per game production was off the charts in 2016. Adams had 700 yards and 6 touchdowns in 8 games with Winnipeg last season, and he and Matt Nichols have looked unstoppable throughout the preseason and in the season opener where he put up 5/77/1. Winnipeg may find themselves chasing Calgary here, so Adams could potentially see 12+ targets in what Vegas sees as a shootout.
DraftKings hasn’t caught onto Posey yet, but it’s clear that he is going to play a legitimate role in Trestman’s offense. Through two weeks, he has leads the CFL in targets and yards, while averaging over 18 YPC. High volume targets for a big play receiver should result in consistent production. Ottawa’s pass defense 670 yards with 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions through their first two weeks, so the matchup is definitely favorable here.
Low hanging fruit here… I get that, but it would be foolish to write an article and not mention how vastly underpriced Demski is. He has put up back to back 7 catch 80+ yard performances, while tacking on another 95 yards as a returner. He will likely be highly owned, but you really can’t miss at $4,300.
In addition to Demski, we like Brian Tyms, Lemar Durant, and Jeff Fuller as week 3 sleeper picks.